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Probably Overthinking It

A blog by Allen Downey. Friday, May 1, 2015. Hypothesis testing is only mostly useless. Recently reported the outcome of an attempt to replicate 100 results from psychology research. They characterize the findings as "worrying.". Classical statistical inference is only mostly wrong. Null-hypothesis significance testing (NHST), I wrote:. 8220;If the p-value is small, you can conclude that the fourth possibility is unlikely, and infer that the other three possibilities are more likely.”. Let me explain by ...

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Probably Overthinking It | allendowney.blogspot.com Reviews

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A blog by Allen Downey. Friday, May 1, 2015. Hypothesis testing is only mostly useless. Recently reported the outcome of an attempt to replicate 100 results from psychology research. They characterize the findings as worrying.. Classical statistical inference is only mostly wrong. Null-hypothesis significance testing (NHST), I wrote:. 8220;If the p-value is small, you can conclude that the fourth possibility is unlikely, and infer that the other three possibilities are more likely.”. Let me explain by ...

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Probably Overthinking It | allendowney.blogspot.com Reviews

https://allendowney.blogspot.com

A blog by Allen Downey. Friday, May 1, 2015. Hypothesis testing is only mostly useless. Recently reported the outcome of an attempt to replicate 100 results from psychology research. They characterize the findings as "worrying.". Classical statistical inference is only mostly wrong. Null-hypothesis significance testing (NHST), I wrote:. 8220;If the p-value is small, you can conclude that the fourth possibility is unlikely, and infer that the other three possibilities are more likely.”. Let me explain by ...

INTERNAL PAGES

allendowney.blogspot.com

1

Probably Overthinking It: My favorite Bayes's Theorem problems

http://allendowney.blogspot.com/2011/10/my-favorite-bayess-theorem-problems.html

A blog by Allen Downey. Thursday, October 20, 2011. My favorite Bayes's Theorem problems. This week: some of my favorite problems involving Bayes's Theorem. Next week: solutions. 1) The first one is a warm-up problem. I got it from Wikipedia (but it's no longer there):. This is a thinly disguised urn problem. It is simple enough to solve without Bayes's Theorem, but good for practice. 2) This one is also an urn problem, but a little trickier. To answer this one, you need some background information: Acco...

2

Probably Overthinking It: Think Complexity

http://allendowney.blogspot.com/2012/01/think-complexity.html

A blog by Allen Downey. Monday, January 23, 2012. On Friday I turned in the manuscript for Think Complexity. Which will be published by O'Reilly Media. In March (or, at least, that's the schedule). For people who can't stand to wait that long, I am going to publish excerpts here. And if you really can't wait, you can read the free version at thinkcomplex.com. The book is about data structures and algorithms, intermediate programming in Python, computational modeling and the philosophy of science:. The bo...

3

Probably Overthinking It: April 2015

http://allendowney.blogspot.com/2015_04_01_archive.html

A blog by Allen Downey. Wednesday, April 15, 2015. Two hour marathon by 2041 - probably. Last fall I taught an introduction to Bayesian statistics. At Olin College. My students worked on some excellent projects, and I invited them to write up their results as guest articles for this blog. Previous articles in the series are:. Bayesian predictions for Super Bowl XLIX. Bayesian analysis of match rates on Tinder. Bayesian survival analysis for Game of Thrones. In this blog article. Since we are assuming the...

4

Probably Overthinking It: Hypothesis testing is only mostly useless

http://allendowney.blogspot.com/2015/05/hypothesis-testing-is-only-mostly.html

A blog by Allen Downey. Friday, May 1, 2015. Hypothesis testing is only mostly useless. Recently reported the outcome of an attempt to replicate 100 results from psychology research. They characterize the findings as "worrying.". Classical statistical inference is only mostly wrong. Null-hypothesis significance testing (NHST), I wrote:. 8220;If the p-value is small, you can conclude that the fourth possibility is unlikely, and infer that the other three possibilities are more likely.”. Let me explain by ...

5

Probably Overthinking It: Two hour marathon by 2041 -- probably

http://allendowney.blogspot.com/2015/04/two-hour-marathon-by-2041-probably.html

A blog by Allen Downey. Wednesday, April 15, 2015. Two hour marathon by 2041 - probably. Last fall I taught an introduction to Bayesian statistics. At Olin College. My students worked on some excellent projects, and I invited them to write up their results as guest articles for this blog. Previous articles in the series are:. Bayesian predictions for Super Bowl XLIX. Bayesian analysis of match rates on Tinder. Bayesian survival analysis for Game of Thrones. In this blog article. Since we are assuming the...

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Il cinghiale digitale: Bayes e Python

http://cinghialedigitale.blogspot.com/2015/04/bayes-e-python.html

Appunti dal web su Società, Informatica, Tecnologia, Scienza. Domenica 5 aprile 2015. Un libro (gratuito) ed un blog su Python e la statistica di Bayes. Qui www.greenteapress.com/thinkbayes/. E qui allendowney.blogspot.com. Iscriviti a: Commenti sul post (Atom). The conventional view serves to protect us from the painful job of thinking. If you cannot measure it, you cannot improve it. Happiness is not achieved by the conscious pursuit of happiness; it is generally the by-product of other activities.

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The Byrnes Lab » Stats & Data Blogs

http://byrneslab.net/resources/stats-data-blogs

Finding a Job after Graduating. Stats & Data Blogs. Boston Area Data Science Groups. Biol 607: An Introduction to Computational Data Analysis for Biology. Marine Biology & Ecology. Introduction to Data Science for Biology. Readings & Schedule for Intro Data Science in Biology. Intro to Data Science Assignments. Intro to Data Science for Biology Labs. Stats & Data Blogs. Statistics and R Blogs. R bloggers an R blog from all R blogs. Romain Francois, Professional R Enthusiast. Diego Valle’s Blog. Naomi Rob...

maximum-entropy-blog.blogspot.com

Maximum Entropy: Mean vs median - a careful balancing act

http://maximum-entropy-blog.blogspot.com/2015/04/mean-vs-median-careful-balancing-act.html

A blog about science, statistics, and rationality - one of my favorite things. Saturday, April 25, 2015. Mean vs median - a careful balancing act. Two common measures of the location of a probability distribution are the mean and the median. While generally, they are quite different things, some familiar distributions have their mean and median at the same point (. All such distributions are symmetric. See comment, below) and vice versa. Reported noticing this blunder). Interestingly, many slightly young...

maximum-entropy-blog.blogspot.com

Maximum Entropy: April 2015

http://maximum-entropy-blog.blogspot.com/2015_04_01_archive.html

A blog about science, statistics, and rationality - one of my favorite things. Saturday, April 25, 2015. Mean vs median - a careful balancing act. Two common measures of the location of a probability distribution are the mean and the median. While generally, they are quite different things, some familiar distributions have their mean and median at the same point (. All such distributions are symmetric. See comment, below) and vice versa. Reported noticing this blunder). Saturday, April 18, 2015. The titl...

maximum-entropy-blog.blogspot.com

Maximum Entropy: Calibrating an X-ray Spectrometer - First Steps

http://maximum-entropy-blog.blogspot.com/2014/05/calibrating-x-ray-spectrometer-first.html

A blog about science, statistics, and rationality - one of my favorite things. Saturday, May 3, 2014. Calibrating an X-ray Spectrometer - First Steps. Most often, the calibration problem is considered to consist of finding the mean (or very often, just the mode) of the probability dist ribution, P(energy channel), th. The n = 1 orbital is also referred to as the K-shell, n = 2 is known as the L-shell, and so on. If an electron in the K-shell absorbs a photon and is given enough energy to exceed E. From L...

maximum-entropy-blog.blogspot.com

Maximum Entropy: Mathematical Resources

http://maximum-entropy-blog.blogspot.com/p/mathematical.html

A blog about science, statistics, and rationality - one of my favorite things. The following gives a list of blog articles and short glossary. Entries covering some of the basic mathematics used on this blog. At the bottom is a list of web-based material authored by people who typically know more maths than I. Other, more esoteric topics in probability have been covered on the blog, but are not included here, in an effort to restrict this list to matters of the most direct practical significance. The Ext...

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Think Stats: Probability and Statistics for Programmers

http://greenteapress.com/thinkstats

Probability and Statistics for Programmers. By Allen B. Downey, published by O'Reilly Media. The second edition of this book. We recommend you switch to the new (and improved) version! Download this book in PDF. Read this book online. Code examples and solutions are available from this subversion repository. Or this zip file. For use with the book. Read the related blog. Is an introduction to Probability and Statistics for Python programmers. Most introductory books don't cover Bayesian statistics, but.

maximum-entropy-blog.blogspot.com

Maximum Entropy: Scientism

http://maximum-entropy-blog.blogspot.com/2014/12/scientism.html

A blog about science, statistics, and rationality - one of my favorite things. Friday, December 12, 2014. It perplexes me that the word 'scientism' is predominantly used as a slur to put people down and criticize their world view and methodology. I realized something recently, however, that helped me understand the error that is often being made, and how that error compounds the problem that is often being called out when people make the accusation of scientism. Whether it is something normally associate...

maximum-entropy-blog.blogspot.com

Maximum Entropy: Rational Ethics Summary Page

http://maximum-entropy-blog.blogspot.com/p/rational-ethics.html

A blog about science, statistics, and rationality - one of my favorite things. Rational Ethics Summary Page. This page provides an index to and summary of content on this blog related to the topic of ethics. This page will be updated, as new, relevant material is added. Blog entries on this topic are (in order of publication):. Practical Morality, Part 1. Practical Morality, Part 2. The following are some (mostly short) glossary entries on relevant topics:. What I do profess to know and understand better...

maximum-entropy-blog.blogspot.com

Maximum Entropy: Readers' Guide

http://maximum-entropy-blog.blogspot.com/p/readers-guide.html

A blog about science, statistics, and rationality - one of my favorite things. This blog is not specifically about maximum-entropy inference. If you came here looking exclusively for such material, skip ahead to this list of the material. I do have on that topic. My first post on Maximum Entropy. That stats is not well respected by society at large - well just look around you. Will be frowned upon. I reserve the right to delete anything that seriously annoys me (honestly, not a lot does). Everybody is en...

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Probably Overthinking It

A blog by Allen Downey. Friday, May 1, 2015. Hypothesis testing is only mostly useless. Recently reported the outcome of an attempt to replicate 100 results from psychology research. They characterize the findings as "worrying.". Classical statistical inference is only mostly wrong. Null-hypothesis significance testing (NHST), I wrote:. 8220;If the p-value is small, you can conclude that the fourth possibility is unlikely, and infer that the other three possibilities are more likely.”. Let me explain by ...

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I am a Professor at Olin College. And the author of a series of books including Think Python. All published by O’Reilly Media. And available under free licenses from Green Tea Press. I write a blog called Probably Overthinking It. Which is mostly about probability and statistics. You can read an interview with me at EEWeb. Olin College of Engineering. Here is my CV. Here is my original web page. Which still has most of my research material. SciPy 2015 talks posted. Meeting Jeff and Chuck at PyCon 2015.

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