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Alternative Energy Trading | Just another WordPress.com weblog

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December | 2007 | Alternative Energy Trading

https://altenergytrading.wordpress.com/2007/12

Just another WordPress.com weblog. Archive for December, 2007. PV Industry Oversupply in 2008. December 31, 2007. I’ve recently gone from near-term bullish to bearish on the PV stocks based on two trends I see emerging for 2008-2010 – first, that cells and panels will be in major oversupply by year-end 2008 and second, that demand is set for a pause due to declining or delayed incentives in Germany, Spain, and the US. Is this a problem? Oh, yes, when you look at the demand estimates. Match the year-e...

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And all the children are above average… | Alternative Energy Trading

https://altenergytrading.wordpress.com/2008/01/24/and-all-the-children-are-above-average

Just another WordPress.com weblog. Laquo; Sunpower’s Results and JA Solar. And all the children are above average…. Listening to the SPWR call provided an interesting factoid. They state 2007 provided 45% growth over 2006 (I believe that was SPWR, not industry). For 2009, they said 3rd party research predicted 30% (base case) to 40%(accelerated case) growth, while they believe SPWR would achieve 45% growth. I can just hear the execs at YGE, STP, and FSLR saying the exact same thing. From your own site.

3

Ethanol at the moment | Alternative Energy Trading

https://altenergytrading.wordpress.com/2008/01/07/ethanol-at-the-moment

Just another WordPress.com weblog. Laquo; A Touch of Profit-taking; “Nominal capacity” numbers;. Risks to Solar Incentives. Ethanol at the moment. I think over the course of 2008, oil and gas will support ethanol, corn will drop assuming a recession drives some speculation out of commodities, and VSE will have positive catalysts: turning up plants, increasingly better voluntary blend numbers, a potential export program in 2008, possibly another acquisition, and likely positive news on their cellulosic JV.

4

Sunpower’s Results and JA Solar | Alternative Energy Trading

https://altenergytrading.wordpress.com/2008/01/24/sunpowers-results-and-ja-solar

Just another WordPress.com weblog. Laquo; Trading Alert: Solar and Ethanol Oversold, But…. And all the children are above average…. Sunpower’s Results and JA Solar. Sunpower came out with 4Q07 earnings that slightly exceeded forecast and guidance that was a touch week for 1Q08 and roughly inline for all of 2008. SPWR dropped 15% in the morning on the news, illustrating how difficult it is for solar stocks to regain momentum even on fairly decent news. Margins at these levels will begin to compress. JASO ...

5

WFR Commentary | Alternative Energy Trading

https://altenergytrading.wordpress.com/2008/01/25/wfr-commentary

Just another WordPress.com weblog. Laquo; And all the children are above average…. 8220;Secured Revenue” and CSIQ, FSLR. Picking up the ER transcript posted on SeekingAlpha, Stephen O’Rourke of DBNA brought up the issue of pending oversupply and asked CEO Gareeb to comment. I believe his response was as follows:. A) yes, it’s an issue. Price pressure would occur at the module level first and then get worked back to wafers as vendors attempted to gain price response back along the food chain. BTW, on the ...

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Alternative Energy Trading | Just another WordPress.com weblog

Just another WordPress.com weblog. Call me crazy…. February 12, 2008. 8230; But I’ve decided to hold a FSLR short into earnings. My take on earnings is the following:. 8211; FSLR will likely beat on revs and earns as they squeeze efficiency out of manufacturing. 8211; I believe the earns and especially the guidance won’t be enough to keep traders and analysts happy, however. This is based on the following:. I think given the risk of oversupply in 09 based on 08 capacity increases, the company will need t...

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