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Commodity Stat Arb

Monday, July 8, 2013. Modeling Residential Electricity Usage with R – Part 2. I can’t believe it has been nearly 6 months since I last posted. Given the sustained heat it seemed like a good idea to finish off this subject. Next we have to find a suitable model for the usage pattern we observed in the last posting. Usage is lowest at around 70F, and rises slightly as temperatures fall but rises significantly as temperatures rise. Continuing from the code presented in the last posting, we can fit a logisti...

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Commodity Stat Arb | blog.kahutrading.com Reviews

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Monday, July 8, 2013. Modeling Residential Electricity Usage with R – Part 2. I can’t believe it has been nearly 6 months since I last posted. Given the sustained heat it seemed like a good idea to finish off this subject. Next we have to find a suitable model for the usage pattern we observed in the last posting. Usage is lowest at around 70F, and rises slightly as temperatures fall but rises significantly as temperatures rise. Continuing from the code presented in the last posting, we can fit a logisti...

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1 commodity stat arb

2 seems appropriate

3 maxslope=0 minslope=0

4 initial variable value

5 maxslopekordtemps dateind max

6 minslopekordtemps dateind min

7 maxscalarplogis kordtemps dateind max

8 start=startlist

9 time=coef test2 3

10 maxs=coef test2 11

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commodity stat arb,seems appropriate,maxslope=0 minslope=0,initial variable value,maxslope*kordtemps dateind max,minslope*kordtemps dateind min,maxscalar*plogis kordtemps dateind max,start=startlist,time=coef test2 3,maxs=coef test2 11,stay cool,posted by

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Commodity Stat Arb | blog.kahutrading.com Reviews

https://blog.kahutrading.com

Monday, July 8, 2013. Modeling Residential Electricity Usage with R – Part 2. I can’t believe it has been nearly 6 months since I last posted. Given the sustained heat it seemed like a good idea to finish off this subject. Next we have to find a suitable model for the usage pattern we observed in the last posting. Usage is lowest at around 70F, and rises slightly as temperatures fall but rises significantly as temperatures rise. Continuing from the code presented in the last posting, we can fit a logisti...

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blog.kahutrading.com

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Commodity Stat Arb: Modeling Residential Electricity Usage with R – Part 2

http://blog.kahutrading.com/2013/07/modeling-residential-electricity-usage.html

Monday, July 8, 2013. Modeling Residential Electricity Usage with R – Part 2. I can’t believe it has been nearly 6 months since I last posted. Given the sustained heat it seemed like a good idea to finish off this subject. Next we have to find a suitable model for the usage pattern we observed in the last posting. Usage is lowest at around 70F, and rises slightly as temperatures fall but rises significantly as temperatures rise. Continuing from the code presented in the last posting, we can fit a logisti...

2

Commodity Stat Arb: October 2010

http://blog.kahutrading.com/2010_10_01_archive.html

Monday, October 18, 2010. The curious case of Oct-Jan NG spreads. The recent expiration of the Oct NG contract provided an opportunity to revisit analysis of the Oct-Jan spread. This spread is calculated (as all NG spreads are) based on the nearer price minus the further price. For example on the last day the October contract traded this year (September 28), the prices were $3.837 and $4.342, so the spread settled at -$0.505. More about gas storage can be found here:. For example if storage is filling ea...

3

Commodity Stat Arb: January 2013

http://blog.kahutrading.com/2013_01_01_archive.html

Wednesday, January 30, 2013. Modeling Residential Electricity Usage with R. Wow, I can’t believe it has been 11 months since my last blog posting! The next series of postings will be related to the retail energy field. Residential power usage is satisfying to model as it can be forecast fairly accurately with the right inputs. Partly as a consequence of deregulation there is now more data more available than before. As in prior postings I will use reproducible R code each step of the way. Construct time ...

4

Commodity Stat Arb: January 2011

http://blog.kahutrading.com/2011_01_01_archive.html

Tuesday, January 11, 2011. Platinum - Palladium relationship. Ok, so they start with the same letter and are part of the same group of elements, but why are they so often proposed as pairs in trading strategies? As a spread strategy they look especially tempting right now:. Palladium outshone Platinum for most of 2010. Is the run over? Or will it go further? Before attempting to answer this question, perhaps an analysis of the relationship is warranted. Do PL and PA exhibit co-movement over time?

5

Commodity Stat Arb: December 2010

http://blog.kahutrading.com/2010_12_01_archive.html

Wednesday, December 22, 2010. Oil - Natural Gas Cointegration - turning point? Much has been written and said about the NG / CL relationship. For most of 2009 pundits touted NG as historically underpriced relative to CL. As always the reality is more complex. Comparing a largely domestic USD commodity with an internationally traded commodity increasingly consumed by emerging markets has inherent risks. Recently I was experimenting with applying cointegration metrics to the NG and CL markets. In the case ...

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Commodity Stat Arb

Monday, July 8, 2013. Modeling Residential Electricity Usage with R – Part 2. I can’t believe it has been nearly 6 months since I last posted. Given the sustained heat it seemed like a good idea to finish off this subject. Next we have to find a suitable model for the usage pattern we observed in the last posting. Usage is lowest at around 70F, and rises slightly as temperatures fall but rises significantly as temperatures rise. Continuing from the code presented in the last posting, we can fit a logisti...

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