sarbayes.org
Projects – SARBayes
http://sarbayes.org/projects
Bayesian methods for WiSAR. A 2011-2012 NSF-Funded project to create a website for comparing the performance of different 2D probability maps using hundreds of actual cases (from ISRID). See this post. MORSS 2012 Poster [ pdf. Twardy, C. R., Jones, N., Goodrich, M. A., Koester, R. J., Cawi, E., Lin, L., and Sava, E. (2012, June). MapScore: A portal for scoring probability maps. Conference Poster presented at the Military Operations Research Society Symposium, Colorado Springs. VASARCON 2012 Slides [ pdf.
sarbayes.org
Eric Cawi – SARBayes
http://sarbayes.org/author/ezcawi
Bayesian methods for WiSAR. The Lognormal Distance Model. Continue reading "The Lognormal Distance Model". September 18, 2014. September 18, 2014. MapScore: A Portal for Scoring Probability Maps. 3 Comments on The Lognormal Distance Model. Australian SAR Data (2). Lost Person Behavior (8). MapScore: A Portal for Scoring Probability Maps (6). Centre for Search Research. Robert Bradley's Re-Search. Subscribe to Blog via Email. Join 8 other subscribers. Proudly powered by WordPress.
sarbayes.org
Introduction – SARBayes
http://sarbayes.org/introduction
Bayesian methods for WiSAR. Site died when Hosting Revolution vanished in October 2011 along with their offsite backups. I recovered what I could and re-launched a Joomla site March 2012. That went down in June. I've moved to Bluehost and WordPress. Wish me better luck. Project and develop models, algorithms, and software to support missing-persons searches on land, using data that we and others have collected about missing-person behavior and search operations. Slowly. Some projects include:. The online...
sarbayes.org
Koester – SARBayes
http://sarbayes.org/tag/koester
Bayesian methods for WiSAR. The MapScore project described here provides a way to evaluate probability maps using actual historical searches. On a metric where random maps score 0 and perfect maps score 1, the ISRID Distance Ring model scored 0.78 (95%CI: 0.74-0.82, on 376 cases). The Combined model was slightly better at .81 (95%CI: 0.77-0.84). Our MapScore paper is now in press at. Continue reading "Forthcoming MapScore Paper! February 22, 2015. February 22, 2015. Australian SAR Data (2).
sarbayes.org
The odds, continually updated (NYT) – SARBayes
http://sarbayes.org/uncategorized/the-odds-continually-updated-nyt
Bayesian methods for WiSAR. The odds, continually updated (NYT). The odds continually updated: This article on Bayes and search theory. Made it to the top of the NYT "most emailed" list last night. October 1, 2014. October 9, 2014. Leave a Reply Cancel reply. Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *. Notify me of follow-up comments by email. Notify me of new posts by email. The Lognormal Distance Model. Coast Guard investigating ground IR detectors for ice rescue.
sarbayes.org
ISRID – SARBayes
http://sarbayes.org/tag/isrid
Bayesian methods for WiSAR. Continue reading "Comparing Weather APIs". February 26, 2016. Leave a comment on Comparing Weather APIs. Fitting Incident Time to a Distribution. Incident times follow a von Mises distribution centered near 5:30pm. ISRID) to describe the probability of survival as a function of various features, such as age or temperature. Continue reading "Fitting Incident Time to a Distribution". February 12, 2016. February 25, 2016. 1 Comment on Fitting Incident Time to a Distribution.
sarbayes.org
Data Analysis – SARBayes
http://sarbayes.org/tag/data-analysis
Bayesian methods for WiSAR. Continue reading "Comparing Weather APIs". February 26, 2016. Leave a comment on Comparing Weather APIs. Fitting Incident Time to a Distribution. Incident times follow a von Mises distribution centered near 5:30pm. ISRID) to describe the probability of survival as a function of various features, such as age or temperature. Continue reading "Fitting Incident Time to a Distribution". February 12, 2016. February 25, 2016. 1 Comment on Fitting Incident Time to a Distribution.
sarbayes.org
Downloads – SARBayes
http://sarbayes.org/links
Bayesian methods for WiSAR. This page is still under reconstruction after the great ISP collapse. If you are looking for something in particular, please write. Also see the Projects. Missing Person Behavior Reports and Data. Missing Person Behaviour: An Australian Study (2006) [ DocStoc. New Zealand Missing Person Behavior (2006) [ SARBayes. Washington State Missing Person Behavior (2006) [ DocStoc. Database Form. (Mostly historical interest. New entries should use the ISRID Spreadsheet. That's it for now.
beyondproxy.com
Bayes' Theorem Can Make You a Better Investor
http://www.beyondproxy.com/bayes-theorem
Bayes’ Theorem: An Introduction. I have a blog called Bayes. Where I describe my investment philosophy through several interlinked posts. My friend John Mihaljevic has asked me to write an introduction to the main ideas contained in Bayes’ Theorem. So here it is. As value investors, we clearly believe that markets are not efficient. Yet the Efficient Market Theory. While wrong in its answers, does ask the right question, that is: If you think a stock is cheap, what do you know that the market doesn’t?
sarbayes.org
MapScore: A Portal for Scoring Probability Maps – SARBayes
http://sarbayes.org/category/projects/mapscore
Bayesian methods for WiSAR. Category: MapScore: A Portal for Scoring Probability Maps. Evaluating LPB Models" Published. The "Evaluating Lost Person Behavior" paper is now officially available in the online edition of Transactions in GIS. The "Evaluating Lost Person Behavior" paper is now officially available in the online edition of. Sava, E., Twardy, C., Koester, R., and Sonwalkar, M. (2016). Evaluating Lost Person Behavior Models. Transactions in GIS. January 24, 2016. January 24, 2016. Thanks very mu...
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