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macromarketmusings.blogspot.com

Macro and Other Market Musings: The Monetary Superpower Strikes Again

http://macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/2015/08/the-monetary-superpower-strikes-again.html

Macro and Other Market Musings. Friday, August 7, 2015. The Monetary Superpower Strikes Again. China's economy has been slowing. Down for the past few years and many observers are worried. The conventional wisdom for why this is happening is that China's demographic problems. And the related malinvestment. Have all come home to roost. While there is a certain appeal to these arguments, there is another explanation that I was recently reminded of by Michael T. And idea further developed. The original cont...

blog.janmusschoot.be

JanMusschoot – Money, Power, and Culture

http://blog.janmusschoot.be/author/janmusschoot

Money, Power, and Culture. Figuring out how the world really works. Naar aanleiding van de honderdste verjaardag van de Russische Revolutie zond Klara een reeks uit over het reusachtige land. Radiomaker Johan de Boose vertelt over de Russische geschiedenis van Ivan de Verschrikkelijke tot de moord op de laatste tsarenfamilie. Je kan de podcastversie vinden op Trojka! Naar Rusland met Johan de Boose. Bijna tien uur luisterplezier! March 9, 2017. Leave a comment on Naar Rusland (luistertip). Tanked the pur...

macromarketmusings.blogspot.com

Macro and Other Market Musings: Why the Fed Will Raise Interest Rates This Year

http://macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/2015/04/why-fed-will-raise-interest-rates-this.html

Macro and Other Market Musings. Thursday, April 30, 2015. Why the Fed Will Raise Interest Rates This Year. Despite the apparent slow down of economic activity during the first quarter of this year, it is likely the Fed will still have to raise interest rates in the near future. This reason why is that households are increasingly expecting their nominal incomes to rise and this typically leads actual wage and salary growth. This can be seen in the figures below. Now the data only runs through March. A...

macromarketmusings.blogspot.com

Macro and Other Market Musings: The Eurozone Counterfactual

http://macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/2015/02/the-eurozone-counterfactual.html

Macro and Other Market Musings. Thursday, February 26, 2015. Imagine the ECB had not raised its interest rate target in 2008 and 2011, but had lowered it. Also imagine the ECB began its open-ended QE program back in 2009. Would there now be a brighter future for the Eurozone? If the answer is yes, then the Eurozone economic debacle is at its core a monetary policy crisis. This pattern holds up more generally across the Eurozone as seen in the next figure. Others will contend the Eurozone crisis is actual...

macromarketmusings.blogspot.com

Macro and Other Market Musings: Secular Stagnation: Missing the Forest for the Trees

http://macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/2014/08/secular-stagnation-missing-forest-for.html

Macro and Other Market Musings. Friday, August 15, 2014. Secular Stagnation: Missing the Forest for the Trees. There is a new VoxEU ebook. On secular stagnation. The book is a collection of essays by many prominent economists, most of whom are proponents of secular stagnation. As readers know, I am not convinced that this problem lingers over the U.S. economy and have explained why at the Washington Post. And on this blog. Subtracting expected inflation from the observed nominal interest rate. They a...

macromarketmusings.blogspot.com

Macro and Other Market Musings: Spawning the Great Recession

http://macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/2014/02/spawning-great-recession.html

Macro and Other Market Musings. Friday, February 28, 2014. Spawning the Great Recession. So what went wrong in 2008? Was the Great Recession inevitable? Robert Hetzel has an entire book. Path of monetary policy. These two. Show the Fed effectively did this during the Great Moderation period. The FOMC failed to do this in the second half of 2008 and, according to the FOMC transcripts, it was because of inflation fears. To the September 16 FOMC meeting this spread declined from a high of 2.72 percent i...

macromarketmusings.blogspot.com

Macro and Other Market Musings: The Wrong Debate: Helicopter Drops vs. Quantative Easing

http://macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/2013/12/the-wrong-debate-helicopter-drops-vs.html

Macro and Other Market Musings. Friday, December 6, 2013. The Wrong Debate: Helicopter Drops vs. Quantative Easing. A central theme of this blog is that the economy is still starved of the monetary assets needed to restore full employment. That is, the ongoing shortfall of aggregate demand is at its core caused by a shortage of money and money-like assets relative to the demand for them. The question, then, is what can be done about this problem. Target. Why would this help? Imagine, for example, that Co...

macromarketmusings.blogspot.com

Macro and Other Market Musings: Is There Really An Aggregate Demand Problem?

http://macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/2012/04/is-there-really-aggregate-demand.html

Macro and Other Market Musings. Wednesday, April 11, 2012. Is There Really An Aggregate Demand Problem? Probably the most important debate on U.S. monetary policy is whether there really is an aggregate demand shortfall and, as a result, a negative output gap. If the answer is yes, then the Fed should be doing more. If no, then monetary policy should show restraint. Some Fed officials like St. Louis Fed President James Bullard. And Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota. There are nine answers f...

macromarketmusings.blogspot.com

Macro and Other Market Musings: Was Grexit Invevitable?

http://macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/2015/06/was-grexit-invevitable.html

Macro and Other Market Musings. Sunday, June 28, 2015. So it appears the Eurozone crisis has finally crossed the. Greece is going to default on Monday and this likely will put in motion its departure from the currency union. The Eurozone as we know it may soon cease to exist. Was this breakup inevitable? Many observers would say yes. The Eurozone, after all, is not an optimal currency area. And therefore likely to create problems. Martin Feldstein, for example, in 1997 wrote. This in Foreign Affairs:.

macromarketmusings.blogspot.com

Macro and Other Market Musings: Farewell Secular Stagnation

http://macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/2014/12/farewell-secular-stagnation.html

Macro and Other Market Musings. Wednesday, December 31, 2014. Looked at the arguments for and against secular stagnation. He cited my Washington Post article. Measure that averages close to 2%. This can be seen in the figures below, drawn from my follow-up article. Interestingly, this risk-neutral measure closely tracks the business cycle and suggests it was the severity of the Great Recession and not secular stagnation that explains the low interest rates over the past six years:. For the U.S. e...Hanse...