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Inbox Zeroer | Messy Matters

http://messymatters.com/email

Bring your own data. Laquo; What Your Friends Don’t Know About You. Things That Never Happen. Saturday, July 31, 2010. UPDATE: I’ve now implemented the email features. Let’s start with a straw poll:. Consider the reasons a message sits in your inbox:. You’re going to need to deal with it but you’re not ready to yet. (Some of this is procrastination, some is legit.). Need to deal with it later. Is a simple system devised by Merlin Mann. Archive: just get rid of it (originally Delete. Respond: if it takes ...

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basketball | Messy Matters

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Bring your own data. How Close is Close. Your team is down by a couple of baskets going into the final minutes of the game. Is it time to panic or is it still anyone’s to win? Plenty have certainly come back from apparently dire situations. Just last month the Lakers beat the Thunder. In double overtime after being down by 11. ». Last week I wrote. Sports. But doing well still means. ». The Oracle of Brackets. It's March and you know what that means: Time for a little madness at the big dance!

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CentMail: Do Good, Fight Spam | Messy Matters

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Bring your own data. Laquo; High-Frequency Trading and the Robot-Led Holocaust. Anatomy of the Long Tail. CentMail: Do Good, Fight Spam. Saturday, August 15, 2009. Our anti-spam project, Centmail. Has gotten some press this week. ( New Scientist. In a nutshell, you donate a penny to a charity of your choice for every email you send, with the donation showing up as a “stamp” in your email signature. Since spammers can’t afford to pay even just one cent per message, these CentMail. Please leave a response.

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Prediction Without Markets | Messy Matters

http://messymatters.com/2010/01/14/prediction-without-markets

Bring your own data. Laquo; Scroogenomics vs Ulterior Motives (and Other Justifications for Gift Giving). Thursday, January 14, 2010. In the 2008 Summer Olympics Usain Bolt. Ran 100 meters in 9.69 seconds. Earning the gold medal and garnering the international attention that comes with being the “ fastest man in the world. 8221; While Bolt became a household name, his competitors didn’t fare nearly as well: far fewer people know that Richard Thompson. Inspired by such theoretical arguments, and also by a...

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beeminder | Messy Matters

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Bring your own data. Smoking Sticks and Carrots. Let’s talk about science! Beehavioral science. A new study published in the New England Journal of Medicine last week has been all over the news. It’s much better than previous studies and statistics I’ve seen on the efficacy of commitment devices. Not because others have been down on commitment devices. On the contrary, I’ve been frustrated in the past by. ». 1000 Days of User-Visible Improvements. A version of this article appeared on the Beeminder Blog.

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Flexible Self-Control | Beeminder Blog

http://blog.beeminder.com/flexbind

Laquo; Why Weigh (Daily)? Quantified Self Talk: Beeminding Beeminder. Sunday, March 25, 2012. This article is cross-posted on Messy Matters. The problem of self-control may be a ridiculous first world problem but it’s the granddaddy of first world problems and I want to solve it. We live amidst a deluge of opportunities for instant gratification, especially in the form of food and entertainment, and most of us don’t handle it well. The general problem, known as akrasia. The reason is risk and uncertainty...

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calibration | Messy Matters

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Bring your own data. Yes, You Are (Maybe) Overconfident. 218 of you took our calibration quiz. Not counting the 10% of submissions that had to be thrown out for not being complete or giving ranges with the min greater than the max or other sanity check failures. ( Here's the raw data. The bad news is that you're terrible at making 90% confidence. ». We shall now find out if Messy Matters readers are smarter than Mechanical Turkers. Is a co-founder of Beeminder. Research. Kelly Savage. Powered by WP Engine.

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Sex, Race, and Politics in Online Dating | Messy Matters

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Bring your own data. Laquo; 1000 Days of User-Visible Improvements. Living the Robot-Mediated Life. Sex, Race, and Politics in Online Dating. Friday, January 31, 2014. With Valentine’s Day two weeks away, there’s still plenty of time to find your soul mate. But daters beware: nearly 50 years after the Supreme Court ruled bans on interracial marriage unconstitutional. Race still matters. Among newlyweds, only 9% of whites and 17% of blacks married outside their race. In a new paper. See, for example, What...

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data | Messy Matters

http://messymatters.com/tag/data

Bring your own data. Lies, Damned Lies, Rape, and Statistics. The vicious gang rape. Of a 23-year-old physiotherapy intern in Delhi last month is tragically just one of many attacks on women that occur every day in India. In 2011 alone, there were more than 24,000 reported rapes in the country. With likely many times that number going unreported. This horrific incident has. ». Ode to Power Laws. Anyone who knows me knows that I love power laws. What other distribution even comes close?

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ai | Messy Matters

http://messymatters.com/tag/ai

Bring your own data. Welcome, Job-Destroying Robots. Let me first emphasize that I’m not talking about the deeper question of superintelligence and what happens when robots can do anything a human can do. This is about the (relatively) more immediate question: What happens when robots can perform any unskilled labor much more cheaply than humans? My answer is that we’ll need a good social safety. ». I’ve been wearing Google glasses. 2011 Plus or Minus a Decade. End-of-year retrospectives are so over done!