marktheballot.blogspot.com

Mark the Ballot

Psephology by the numbers. Monday, August 17, 2015. Polling update with a twist of West Wing. Was another shocker for the Coalition: 46-54 in Labor's favour. It was a one point decline for the Coalition on the previous Ipsos poll. If preferences were allocated by how people said they would allocate them, the result would have been even worse for the Coalition: 44-56. As a West Wing tragic, it reminded of the following scene from series 7. In which the latest tracking poll is provided to the Santos team.

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Psephology by the numbers. Monday, August 17, 2015. Polling update with a twist of West Wing. Was another shocker for the Coalition: 46-54 in Labor's favour. It was a one point decline for the Coalition on the previous Ipsos poll. If preferences were allocated by how people said they would allocate them, the result would have been even worse for the Coalition: 44-56. As a West Wing tragic, it reminded of the following scene from series 7. In which the latest tracking poll is provided to the Santos team.

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Mark the Ballot | marktheballot.blogspot.com Reviews

https://marktheballot.blogspot.com

Psephology by the numbers. Monday, August 17, 2015. Polling update with a twist of West Wing. Was another shocker for the Coalition: 46-54 in Labor's favour. It was a one point decline for the Coalition on the previous Ipsos poll. If preferences were allocated by how people said they would allocate them, the result would have been even worse for the Coalition: 44-56. As a West Wing tragic, it reminded of the following scene from series 7. In which the latest tracking poll is provided to the Santos team.

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marktheballot.blogspot.com

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Mark the Ballot: December 2014

http://www.marktheballot.blogspot.com/2014_12_01_archive.html

Psephology by the numbers. Saturday, December 20, 2014. Aggregated Polls: the first 15 months of the Abbott Government. The Federal Election was held on 7 September 2013, and the Abbott Ministry was sworn in on 18 September 2013. As the Government's fortunes have ebbed and flowed over the 15 months since the change of government, I thought it time to reflect on those changes. The simplest way to aggregate these results is through a localised regression. We can compare the smoothed Bayes model (which adju...

2

Mark the Ballot: April 2015

http://www.marktheballot.blogspot.com/2015_04_01_archive.html

Psephology by the numbers. Tuesday, April 28, 2015. Steady as she goes. There is not much to report since the last fortnight. The Bayesian model has been a flat line now for eight weeks, deep in catastrophic loss territory for the Coalition. The LOESS model has come back into line with the Bayesian model. Sunday, April 12, 2015. Another set of noisy polls - moving in different directions - giving different messages on the state of the nation's voting intentions:. Subscribe to: Posts (Atom). The Internet ...

3

Mark the Ballot: May 2015

http://www.marktheballot.blogspot.com/2015_05_01_archive.html

Psephology by the numbers. Friday, May 29, 2015. Today, I updated the technicals. Page for the 2016 election. This is the page where I explain the Bayesian model I use. The page includes additional commentary on the JAGS model, which explains how the various elements of the model interact. The change has had little impact on the analysis, so my fears were probably unfounded. Nonetheless, I have retained the uniform prior, as it is clearly less informative than the normal prior. Saturday, May 23, 2015.

4

Mark the Ballot: August 2015

http://www.marktheballot.blogspot.com/2015_08_01_archive.html

Psephology by the numbers. Saturday, August 29, 2015. Saturday betting market update. The betting market this week firmed a touch in the Coalition's direction. The Coalition is ahead (with bookmakers pricing the probability of a Coalition win between 55.0 and 57.7 per cent). But this is not a huge margin. The markets are saying that Labor has a little more than 4 chances in 10 of winning the next election. Coalition Win Probability (%). Links to this post. Thursday, August 27, 2015. While we are here, it...

5

Mark the Ballot: June 2015

http://www.marktheballot.blogspot.com/2015_06_01_archive.html

Psephology by the numbers. Tuesday, June 30, 2015. A few new polls to report:. Moved a percentage point in the Coalition's direction between 13 May and 25 June to be 48 to 52 in Labor's favour. Moved one and a half percentage points in the Coalition's direction in late June compared with early June, to be 47 to 53 in Labor's favour. Which I don't feed into my aggregations) moved a percentage point in Labor's direction compared with the previous rolling weekly report to be 47 to 53 in Labor's favour.

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marktheballot.blogspot.com

Mark the Ballot

Psephology by the numbers. Monday, August 17, 2015. Polling update with a twist of West Wing. Was another shocker for the Coalition: 46-54 in Labor's favour. It was a one point decline for the Coalition on the previous Ipsos poll. If preferences were allocated by how people said they would allocate them, the result would have been even worse for the Coalition: 44-56. As a West Wing tragic, it reminded of the following scene from series 7. In which the latest tracking poll is provided to the Santos team.

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