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Duke Uni
Michael Ward
Dept Po●●●●●●●Science
Campu●●●●●90204
Du●●am , North Carolina, 27708
United States
View this contact
Duke Uni
Michael Ward
Dept Po●●●●●●●Science
Campu●●●●●90204
Du●●am , North Carolina, 27708
United States
View this contact
Duke Uni
Michael Ward
Dept Po●●●●●●●Science
Campu●●●●●90204
Du●●am , North Carolina, 27708
United States
View this contact
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mdwardlab.com | mdwardlab.com Reviews
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mdwardlab.com
April 2015 CRISP Predictions | mdwardlab.com
http://www.mdwardlab.com/biblio/april-2015-crisp-predictions
April 2015 CRISP Predictions. April 2015 CRISP Predictions. Monthly forecast report for April 2015, generated using the CRISP software. Report 2015 04.pdf. April 2015 CRISP Predictions.
November 2014 CRISP Predictions | mdwardlab.com
http://www.mdwardlab.com/biblio/november-2014-crisp-predictions
November 2014 CRISP Predictions. November 2014 CRISP Predictions. Monthly forecast report for November 2014, generated using the CRISP software. November 2014 CRISP Predictions.
Data | mdwardlab.com
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mdwardlab.com
http://www.mdwardlab.com/conflict_forecasting/home
Predictions for November 2014 - Country Watchlists. Tuesday, November 11, 2014 - 7:39pm. The current version of the CRISP package includes data up until October 2014. Forecasts here are for November 2014. These hierarchical model forecasts are for the five EOIs (Events of Interest) in the current CRISP package version. Listed in this watch list are countries that did not have an actual incidence of the EOI, but are predicted to be at high risk of having an onset. Monday, August 4, 2014 - 3:53pm. These hi...
Software | mdwardlab.com
http://www.mdwardlab.com/software
Brian D. Greenhill, Michael D. Ward and Audrey Sacks. Http:/ cran.r-project.org/web/packages/separationplot/. Package (current version at http:/ cran.r-project.org/. CRISP, a suite of programs to aid CRISis Prediction. Michael D. Ward. If you are interested in licensing this software, contact michael.d.ward@duke.edu. Jacob M. Montgomery, Florian Hollenbach, and Michael D. Ward. Http:/ cran.r-project.org/web/packages/EBMAforecast/. Package (current version at. Http:/ cran.r-project.org/.
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politicalmethodology.wordpress.com
How to make a scientific result disappear | Political Methodology
https://politicalmethodology.wordpress.com/2013/02/27/how-to-make-a-scientific-result-disappear
Substantively significant discussion of quantitative social science. How to make a scientific result disappear. Nathan Danneman (a co-author and one of my graduate students from Emory) recently sent me a New Yorker article. From 2010 about the decline effect, the tendency for initially promising scientific results to get smaller upon replication. Wikipedia. Can summarize the phenomenon as well as I can:. In 1991, Danish zoologist Anders Møller discovered a connection between symmetry and sexual preferenc...
Earth to Apple: Some of us would still like to use your computers | asecondmouse
https://asecondmouse.wordpress.com/2014/11/08/hey-apple-some-of-us-would-still-like-to-use-your-computers
Reflections on social science, politics and education. A hundred or so questions to think about asking at an academic job interview. Hey, who you calling a ‘Crusader’? Earth to Apple: Some of us would still like to use your computers. November 8, 2014. I’ve been an Apple guy from. 8216;s [3] 6-point presentation fonts has not been at all pleasant. But having settled into my new old office in CVille. I’d decided to get a new iMac with a 27″ screen replacing the ca. 2008 model I’d bou...In semi-feudal cond...
The War on Yule | asecondmouse
https://asecondmouse.wordpress.com/2013/12/20/the-war-on-yule
Reflections on social science, politics and education. Rampant parasitism hits the open access journal concept! Seven plus Seven Bits of Unsolicited Observations for the Young Invincibles on the Subject of Health Insurance →. The War on Yule. December 20, 2013. As we mark the solstice, and the beginning of return of the sun to the north, I wish to reflect briefly on how thoroughly we seem to have lost touch with the origins of this holiday. Let’s keep the Yule in the Yuletide. Seven Reasons Big is Bad [5].
Following up on “Feral” | asecondmouse
https://asecondmouse.wordpress.com/2013/08/04/following-up-on-feral
Reflections on social science, politics and education. Or So long, and thanks for all the fish…. When Blogs Go Bad…and a word on networking at conferences →. Following up on “Feral”. August 4, 2013. Lots of nice notes from people—thanks—though it is interesting how different folks picked up on different bits. I don’t follow Twitter or. 2] though I did follow back a few of the links from other blogs and thus have a couple—not seven—clarifications to make. 8212;and in decided contrast to the position of Me...
Games on networks, with application to Thai politics | Predictive Heuristics
https://predictiveheuristics.com/2013/10/19/games-on-networks-with-application-to-thai-politics
Blog by Ward Lab @ Duke U. October 19, 2013. Games on networks, with application to Thai politics. The top rug shows the different parties that are in power in Thailand during the observation period, with markers for changes in power. The bottom plot shows conflictual events in Thailand from 1998 on. Six dead in shootout in Thai south. Thailand begins monitoring of Facebook, YouTube and LINE. Next post →. Predictive Heuristics is the Ward Lab's blog. We also live on this website. Here are our members.
Seven reasons I probably can’t help you get my open source software running on your computer | asecondmouse
https://asecondmouse.wordpress.com/2015/04/13/seven-reasons-why-i-probably-cant-help-you-to-get-my-open-source-software-running-on-your-computer
Reflections on social science, politics and education. Seven observations on the newly released ICEWS data. Is Trump pulling a Colbert on the Republican Party? Seven reasons I probably can’t help you get my open source software running on your computer. April 13, 2015. Have a programmer eviscerated by a velociraptor, crushed in a trash compactor, or reduced to Valyrian dragon chow.[1] All of these are sure crowd-pleasers. 1 No two research computers are identical. To run the software. I’ve know...Running...
The right kind of variance | Predictive Heuristics
https://predictiveheuristics.com/2014/10/06/the-right-kind-of-variance
Blog by Ward Lab @ Duke U. October 6, 2014. The right kind of variance. Or, How I learned to stop worrying and love event data. The reason for this is obvious when you consider the underlying variance structure. First, to predict something that changes, say dissident-government conflict. The nature of relationships between political parties. You need predictors that change. In fact, with enough data, you are bound to find some correlations purely due to chance. So sometimes it’s good to have co...Coding ...
July | 2015 | asecondmouse
https://asecondmouse.wordpress.com/2015/07
Reflections on social science, politics and education. Monthly Archives: July 2015. Is Trump pulling a Colbert on the Republican Party? July 9, 2015. As a Will Rogers Democrat [1], I’ve been watching with delight as Donald Trump states, re-states, and then doubles-down on statements that seem almost perfectly designed to offend the median voter and put other Republican presidential hopefuls now a not insignificant … Continue reading →. Seven reflections on Trump, Sanders and the crisis of bozo capitalism.
A primer on web scraping with R | Predictive Heuristics
https://predictiveheuristics.com/2014/10/28/a-primer-on-web-scraping-with-r
Blog by Ward Lab @ Duke U. October 28, 2014. A primer on web scraping with R. The current data situation on the Web. Not pictured: landing net R. Image from commons.wikimedia.org. This is a guest post by Simon Munzert, PhD student at the University of Konstanz, who is currently on a visit at the Lab. And its potential for so. Still, during my short stay at the Lab as a visiting scholar I had the opportunity to give a little introduction to various web scraping techniques using R. To scrape data from a we...
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