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inpredictable: Clutch Shooting Isn't Easy (unless it's a free throw)

http://www.inpredictable.com/2015/03/clutch-shooting-isnt-easy-unless-its.html

Win Probability ▼. NBA Charts ▼. Monday, March 9, 2015. Clutch Shooting Isn't Easy (unless it's a free throw). Last Thursday night, the Bulls trailed the Thunder. At home by 1 point with 4.9 seconds left on the clock. The Bulls' inbounds play was designed to get a shot for Pau Gasol, but Gasol improvised instead with a touch pass to E'Twaun Moore on the perimeter. Moore's three point shot was good and gave the Bulls a 2 point lead with just two seconds to go (cue Benny the Bull. Somewhat related to #1, d...

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inpredictable: The Clutch Shooting of Paul Pierce

http://www.inpredictable.com/2015/05/the-clutch-shooting-of-paul-pierce.html

Win Probability ▼. NBA Charts ▼. Thursday, May 14, 2015. The Clutch Shooting of Paul Pierce. Paul Pierce currently leads all NBA players. That shot, which put the Wizards up 1 with 8 seconds left, increased their win probability by 50%, from 18% to 68%. Had Pierce missed, the Wizards win probability would have dropped to 8%, a total potential swing of 60% riding on Pierce's shot. As I did earlier this week with Derrick Rose. Including last night's clutch corner three, he is shooting 43% on the highest pr...

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inpredictable: That stubborn final minute of regulation

http://www.inpredictable.com/2014/04/that-stubborn-final-minute-of-regulation.html

Win Probability ▼. NBA Charts ▼. Saturday, April 19, 2014. That stubborn final minute of regulation. As a follow up to my post on the realtime length of each minute of NBA gametime. Thanks to Tom Haberstroh. For spreading the word), here is a deeper look into that final minute. 54 minutes on average. It's a common complaint that the last "minute" of NBA regulation is anything but. Using time stamp data from stats.nba.com. Distribution of game length. The chart below summarizes how that final minute is di...

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inpredictable: How long is each minute of NBA gametime?

http://www.inpredictable.com/2014/04/how-long-is-each-minute-of-nba-gametime.html

Win Probability ▼. NBA Charts ▼. Sunday, April 13, 2014. How long is each minute of NBA gametime? In a recent post. Took a look at the length of college basketball games, particularly the grueling slog that the last minute of game time often becomes. The NCAA currently does not track game length as an official stat, so Carl had to rely on some nice work. Having been snooping around the Stats. Section of NBA.com. Rather than automatically awarding possession to the fouling team. Game length by broadcast n...

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inpredictable: How Much Actual Time is Left in the Game?

http://www.inpredictable.com/2015/06/how-much-actual-time-is-left-in-game.html

Win Probability ▼. NBA Charts ▼. Sunday, June 14, 2015. How Much Actual Time is Left in the Game? The Persistence of NBA Game Time. Close games in the NBA can somewhat of a mixed blessing. As the drama increases, the pace tends to drag, as teams call timeouts to draw up set plays, players are fouled to stop the clock, and officials await decisions from the NBA's centralized review office in New Jersey. On average, the final minute of an NBA game takes over 5 minutes of real time to complete. It appears t...

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inpredictable: Top Match Finder for Tennis

http://www.inpredictable.com/2014/06/top-match-finder-for-tennis.html

Win Probability ▼. NBA Charts ▼. Sunday, June 29, 2014. Top Match Finder for Tennis. Win probability graphs are up and running. For Wimbledon matches. With 127 matches played in each major tournament, it can be difficult to track down particularly noteworthy matches. So, I've added a top match finder. Which returns the top matches according to either Excitement Index or Comeback Factor (with filters for date and tournament). This is similar to the Top Games Finder. Posted by Michael Beuoy. How long is ea...

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inpredictable: My Team's Proxy Can Beat Up Your Team's Proxy

http://www.inpredictable.com/2014/12/my-teams-proxy-can-beat-up-your-teams.html

Win Probability ▼. NBA Charts ▼. Thursday, December 4, 2014. My Team's Proxy Can Beat Up Your Team's Proxy. In a few days. The College Football Playoff Selection Committee. Will release their final team rankings. The committee ranks the top 25 teams in the nation, but it's the top four that everyone will pay attention to. As a public service/argument starter, I have created a comparison tool. What if we wanted to do the same comparison between Alabama and TCU. Alabama and TCU have not played each other t...

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inpredictable: Measuring Clutch Play in the NBA

http://www.inpredictable.com/2014/03/measuring-clutch-play-in-nba.html

Win Probability ▼. NBA Charts ▼. Saturday, March 8, 2014. Measuring Clutch Play in the NBA. In this post I will lay out an approach for measuring clutch play in the NBA, using my win probability model. As the underlying framework. The piece was also included in ESPN The Magazine's March " Analytics Issue. Which I still can't believe is an actual thing. Keating attempts to bridge the gap between the traditionalist view of clutch play and the stathead view, with sound advice for both sides. In which they d...

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inpredictable: Heavy Favorites Usually Don't Surrender Big Leads (usually)

http://www.inpredictable.com/2015/05/heavy-favorites-usually-dont-surrender.html

Win Probability ▼. NBA Charts ▼. Friday, May 15, 2015. Heavy Favorites Usually Don't Surrender Big Leads (usually). The Houston Rockets pulled off the second most improbable comeback. Of this year's playoffs last night. Down by 19 with 2 minutes left in the third, the Rockets finished the game on a ridiculous 49-18 run to force a game seven in their conference semifinals series with the Clippers. Two minutes left in the third:. 75 to 12 pt underdogs. The "pre game" version. Posted by Michael Beuoy. Intro...