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Wednesday, December 5, 2012. Matt Asher, a popular blogger on statistics has taken a fresh look at global warming. He has come to the conclusion that based on the temperature data for the last 131 years, as provided by NASA. But is he correct? I decided to test the data myself using a Bayesian approach. I also allow for secular changes in the temperature trend assumption and in the standard deviation assumption. The formal model is. C= annual trend in change in temperature (the Trend Factor). And assume ...

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Wednesday, December 5, 2012. Matt Asher, a popular blogger on statistics has taken a fresh look at global warming. He has come to the conclusion that based on the temperature data for the last 131 years, as provided by NASA. But is he correct? I decided to test the data myself using a Bayesian approach. I also allow for secular changes in the temperature trend assumption and in the standard deviation assumption. The formal model is. C= annual trend in change in temperature (the Trend Factor). And assume ...

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1 random variable

2 global warming redux

3 where

4 library rjags

5 library lattice

6 summary data samples

7 densityplot data samples

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9 sigmamean mean sigma

10 sigmaunadjusted dunif 0 100

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Random Variable | randomvariable.us Reviews

https://randomvariable.us

Wednesday, December 5, 2012. Matt Asher, a popular blogger on statistics has taken a fresh look at global warming. He has come to the conclusion that based on the temperature data for the last 131 years, as provided by NASA. But is he correct? I decided to test the data myself using a Bayesian approach. I also allow for secular changes in the temperature trend assumption and in the standard deviation assumption. The formal model is. C= annual trend in change in temperature (the Trend Factor). And assume ...

INTERNAL PAGES

randomvariable.us

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Random Variable: Taleb & Kahneman on Risks, Perceptions and Denials

http://www.randomvariable.us/2010/09/taleb-kahneman-on-risks-perceptions-and.html

Saturday, September 11, 2010. Taleb and Kahneman on Risks, Perceptions and Denials. A somewhat old video, but a classic discussion between two very smart people. Subscribe to: Post Comments (Atom). Taleb and Kahneman on Risks, Perceptions and Denials. Tossing Coins on WolframAlpha. Awesome Inc. template. Powered by Blogger.

2

Random Variable: December 2012

http://www.randomvariable.us/2012_12_01_archive.html

Wednesday, December 5, 2012. Matt Asher, a popular blogger on statistics has taken a fresh look at global warming. He has come to the conclusion that based on the temperature data for the last 131 years, as provided by NASA. But is he correct? I decided to test the data myself using a Bayesian approach. I also allow for secular changes in the temperature trend assumption and in the standard deviation assumption. The formal model is. C= annual trend in change in temperature (the Trend Factor). And assume ...

3

Random Variable: Winning at Rock-Paper-Scissors

http://www.randomvariable.us/2011/03/winning-at-rock-paper-scissors.html

Sunday, March 6, 2011. The New York Times has a web program that let’s you play Rock-Paper-Scissors. Online. The interesting thing about this game is that it can be shown that the most efficient strategy is to to play a completely random game. If you don’t play a random game, then your opponent can estimate your strategy and eventually begin to predict your moves. This is the idea behind the the New York Times game, which is frustratingly difficult to beat. Men tend to lead with Rock. And so on….

4

Random Variable: Vivitrol, the FDA and Quitters, Inc.

http://www.randomvariable.us/2010/10/vivitrol-fda-and-quitters-inc.html

Tuesday, October 19, 2010. Vivitrol, the FDA and Quitters, Inc. And see what it is that they do and whether they had my best interests in mind. I began by looking at a page. Listing drugs that have been recently approved and I picked Vivitrol. Because it sounded nice. It turns out that Vivitrol was approved a few years back, but has just received a modified and expanded indication approval. Vivitrol or naltrexone is used for treating alcohol dependence and more recently for opioid use. Actual number of h...

5

Random Variable: The Mismeasure of Man

http://www.randomvariable.us/2011/01/mismeasure-of-man.html

Saturday, January 15, 2011. The Mismeasure of Man. Here is a fascinating discussion by Ralph Horwitz, MD, professor of medicine at Stanford, on the subtleties of statistics in medicine:. Subscribe to: Post Comments (Atom). The Mismeasure of Man. Awesome Inc. template. Powered by Blogger.

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statisticsblog.com

The surprisingly weak case for global warming « Probability and statistics blog

http://www.statisticsblog.com/2012/12/the-surprisingly-weak-case-for-global-warming

Probability and statistics blog. In Monte Carlo We Trust. The surprisingly weak case for global warming. I welcome your thoughts on this post, but please read through to the end before commenting. Also, you’ll find the related code (in R) at the end. For those new to this blog, you may be taken aback (though hopefully not bored or shocked! TL;DR (simple version): Statistician does a test, fails to find evidence of global warming. The earth has been getting warmer. This warming is part of a long term (sec...

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randomvariable.us

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Wednesday, December 5, 2012. Matt Asher, a popular blogger on statistics has taken a fresh look at global warming. He has come to the conclusion that based on the temperature data for the last 131 years, as provided by NASA. But is he correct? I decided to test the data myself using a Bayesian approach. I also allow for secular changes in the temperature trend assumption and in the standard deviation assumption. The formal model is. C= annual trend in change in temperature (the Trend Factor). And assume ...

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