Applying markets, especially prediction markets, to political problems and the hedging of risk. -- prediction markets, prediction market, legislation-linked, political markets, political market, ruspini, jason ruspini, reflexivity, self-fulfilling, alternative derivatives, event market
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Risk Markets And Politics | riskmarkets.blogspot.com Reviews
https://riskmarkets.blogspot.com
Applying markets, especially prediction markets, to political problems and the hedging of risk. -- prediction markets, prediction market, legislation-linked, political markets, political market, ruspini, jason ruspini, reflexivity, self-fulfilling, alternative derivatives, event market
riskmarkets.blogspot.com
Risk Markets And Politics: The gamble of downplaying manipulation
http://riskmarkets.blogspot.com/2008/10/gamble-of-downplaying-manipulation.html
Risk Markets And Politics. Wednesday, October 15, 2008. The gamble of downplaying manipulation. Whether it is GOP bias, manipulation, or simply confident well-funded traders, there is some agreement. That prediction markets may be manipulated with some persistence should be no surprise to anyone who has followed the subject in the past couple of years. Here is a sampling of some of the warnings:. The HRC attack, part 2. Manipulation can affect prices. Measured Enthusiasm For Prediction Markets. Second, s...
Risk Markets And Politics: Regulated US election markets might not be so hard
http://riskmarkets.blogspot.com/2008/08/regulated-us-election-markets-might-not.html
Risk Markets And Politics. Sunday, August 03, 2008. Regulated US election markets might not be so hard. Based on the arguments Hedgestreet presented in its response. By 7 U.S.C. 7a-2(c)(3). Therefore, a vote-share or electoral college future is more feasible at this moment than a winner-take-all option, although the latter is more useful as a hedging vehicle. Given the current political climate in which the CFTC operates, the Commission may welcome such an active stance from Hedgestreet and other DCMs on...
Risk Markets And Politics: Demographics and Returns
http://riskmarkets.blogspot.com/2009/04/demographics-and-returns.html
Risk Markets And Politics. Sunday, April 19, 2009. The intensification of the pension crisis provides a reason to re-examine the long-term effects of demographic shifts on underlying asset returns. Increased longevity has strained retirement system funding and this trend is unlikely to abate. At the same time, most asset prices have collapsed, but as the current bust becomes less acute, what can we say about long-term prospective returns? What about equity returns? Is based on the observation that person...
Risk Markets And Politics: My response to the CFTC on event contracts
http://riskmarkets.blogspot.com/2008/07/my-response-to-cftc-on-event-contracts.html
Risk Markets And Politics. Saturday, July 05, 2008. My response to the CFTC on event contracts. Is my response to the CFTC's "Concept Release on the Appropriate Regulatory Treatment of Event Contracts.". I appreciate this opportunity to help in working towards regulated prediction markets in the US, and I thank the Commissioners for it. I regret not having argued more for the desirability of non-intermediated exchanges. We are at a specific point where a little bit of additional regulation might cause an...
Risk Markets And Politics: Disneyland burned down
http://riskmarkets.blogspot.com/2008/10/disneyland-burned-down.html
Risk Markets And Politics. Monday, October 13, 2008. Satyajit Das, in his 2006 book:. Dealers on exchanges charge clients a fixed commission to trade; the cartel of dealers means that clients have no choice other than to deal through them. The dealers are fierce advocates of competition except where it affects them. Meanwhile, the CME's regulator finds that its prestige has increased relative to the SEC. Why should the CFTC be under periodic Congressional review but not the SEC? Timely public prices and ...
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Risk Markets And Politics
Risk Markets And Politics. Sunday, April 19, 2009. The intensification of the pension crisis provides a reason to re-examine the long-term effects of demographic shifts on underlying asset returns. Increased longevity has strained retirement system funding and this trend is unlikely to abate. At the same time, most asset prices have collapsed, but as the current bust becomes less acute, what can we say about long-term prospective returns? What about equity returns? Is based on the observation that person...
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