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Current Forecast (Login Req.). This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. Currently Equity Price Forecasts are Made Using Valuation Methods. Two Major Advances Were Required to Obtain a Pricing Model that can be used to Forecast Prices with Sufficient Accuracy for Commercial Application. Advance #1: A price Model was developed that can calculate the equity price using reported data. Advance #2: A Method was developed to greatly reduce forecast error.

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Current Forecast (Login Req.). This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. Currently Equity Price Forecasts are Made Using Valuation Methods. Two Major Advances Were Required to Obtain a Pricing Model that can be used to Forecast Prices with Sufficient Accuracy for Commercial Application. Advance #1: A price Model was developed that can calculate the equity price using reported data. Advance #2: A Method was developed to greatly reduce forecast error.

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1

Pricing Model

http://www.sci2tech.com/methods.html

The Model has been developed by fitting historical earnings yield data to a model based on the earnings yield premium that investors require for holding the risky asset. Only well studied and discussed macro-economic variables are used. Sentiment is included in the Model through the macro-economic variables like the Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. The reference Model has been developed using yield data dating back to 1970. The fit of the full Model to the data is shown below.

2

Forecasting Method

http://www.sci2tech.com/forcasting.html

To provide more accurate forecasts for time horizons between 1 and 12 months ahead a new approach to error correction had to be developed. The details are proprietary and a patent application is being prepared. To illustrate the power of the forecasting method as applied to the pricing model described in the HOME TAB, I present in-sample forecasts for 2012, 2013 and 2014 using the actual reported economic data (perfect expectations). The red. Dots are data and the green. The Model tightly couples equity ...

3

About Sci2Tech

http://www.sci2tech.com/about.html

Sci2Tech Inc was founded in CY 2001 with the goal of transferring scientific advances into practical products. This Website is devoted to the economic modeling portion of its business. Contact: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. Sci2Tech Inc. 2016.

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