blog.lvrg.org.au
Land Values Research Group: Housing finance continues its unbalanced rally
http://blog.lvrg.org.au/2013/08/housing-finance-continues-unbalanced-rally.html
Wednesday, August 07, 2013:. Housing finance continues its unbalanced rally. By Gavin R. Putland. The ABS has released “ 5609.0 - Housing Finance, Australia. In spite of the recent increase in the FHB fraction, which presumably includes a pull-forward effect due to the termination of grants for purchases of established dwellings in Victoria, Tasmania and the ACT. The black curve shows the seasonally-adjusted number of private-sector building approvals (ABS 8731.0). And historically low dwelling construct...
blog.lvrg.org.au
Land Values Research Group: Investor-FHB imbalance approaches tipping point?
http://blog.lvrg.org.au/2013/12/investor-fhb-imbalance-approaches-tipping-point.html
Saturday, December 21, 2013:. Investor-FHB imbalance approaches tipping point? By Gavin R. Putland. The ABS Eight Capital Cities house-price index, scaled to per-capita GDP, continues to rally at a pace reminiscent of 2006 and 2007 (red curve), assisted by 200bp of cuts in the cash rate (beginning in November 2011). The above graph shows the index up to Q3 of 2013. As RP Data's 5-city daily dwelling-price index has had an almost continuous bull run. And new home sales. In the same article. Van Onselen sh...
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Land Values Research Group: Budget reply: A tax policy for full employment and affordable housing
http://blog.lvrg.org.au/2014/05/tax-policy-for-full-employment-and-affordable-housing.html
Wednesday, May 14, 2014:. Budget reply: A tax policy for full employment and affordable housing. By Gavin R. Putland. To start participating in the economy, you need two things: a job, and a home within commuting distance of the job. The Australian Government (whichever party is in power) deliberately makes both hard to get. Be claimed against wage/salary income (although it. A cost of earning that income). That's why investors can claim negative gearing even if they don't build. Homes, but simply buy ex...
blog.lvrg.org.au
Land Values Research Group: A classical view of ‘fiscal devaluation’
http://blog.lvrg.org.au/2013/09/a-classical-view-of-devaluation.html
Tuesday, September 03, 2013:. A classical view of ‘fiscal devaluation’. Ldquo;Fiscal devaluation redistributes the impact of taxation between factors of production so as to reduce the damage. If we tax the value of labour, there will be less labour. If we tax the value of (produced) capital, there will be less capital. But if we tax the value of. There will not be less land. (For present purposes we may take. Read the full article “ Fiscal devaluation on steroids. Rdquo; at MacroBusiness. If thats useful,.
blog.lvrg.org.au
Land Values Research Group: Reply to Henry Ergas on negative gearing
http://blog.lvrg.org.au/2015/05/reply-to-henry-ergas-on-negative-gearing.html
Tuesday, May 05, 2015:. Reply to Henry Ergas on negative gearing. Nothing to do with raising or minimizing taxes, says Gavin R. Putland. So today [4 May 2015] we have Henry Ergas in the Australian. Claiming that any modification to NG is a coward's route to raising tax. On the middle class. To defy the new incentives by negatively gearing established homes. Their choice: their responsibility! I]f you are going to prevent interest expense from being fully deductible against property investors' taxable inc...
blog.lvrg.org.au
Land Values Research Group: How entrenched is negative gearing?
http://blog.lvrg.org.au/2014/07/how-entrenched-is-negative-gearing.html
Wednesday, July 16, 2014:. How entrenched is negative gearing? By Gavin R. Putland. According to pre-Budget leaks reported. By SBS on 3 April, and confirmed. By Louis Christopher on 9 April, Treasury and the Parliamentary Budget Office have modelled a proposal to disallow negative gearing (NG) on future purchases of established homes, while still allowing it for new homes and grandfathering past acquisitions. On 15 April, Jennifer Duke in Property Observer. On 21 April, also in Property Observer. Limitin...
blog.lvrg.org.au
Land Values Research Group: For the record: Putland on negative gearing, CGT and the FHOG, 2003
http://blog.lvrg.org.au/2014/05/putland-on-negative-gearing-cgt-fhog-2003.html
Thursday, May 01, 2014:. For the record: Putland on negative gearing, CGT and the FHOG, 2003. In the last two years, all Australian states and territories except the NT have decided to reduce or terminate the First Home Owners' Grant for established homes. (The NT pays a premium if the home is new. Outside the designated urban area, but has not reduced the grant below $7000 for established homes). One option under consideration. Letter in the Sun-Herald. 20 July 2003, p.18 (with photo):. So if the Howard...
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Land Values Research Group: Howard blew his capital
http://blog.lvrg.org.au/2014/01/howard-blew-his-capital.html
Monday, January 20, 2014:. Howard blew his capital. Submitted text of the letter in today's AFR. By Gavin R. Putland. Ldquo;Big majorities never last,” writes John Howard. Letters, January 16), “so political capital should be spent on a good cause.”. Opinion, January 16) complains of “high structural costs, other than wages” without mentioning tax! Another way is to reduce the GST rate to zero (eliminating the need to calculate the base, hence the compliance cost, and reducing the cost of living) and rep...
blog.lvrg.org.au
Land Values Research Group: Housing investors party on like it's 2003
http://blog.lvrg.org.au/2015/05/housing-investors-party-on-like-its-2003.html
Wednesday, May 13, 2015:. Housing investors party on like it's 2003. By Gavin R. Putland. The recent flattening of the owner-occupation curve followed the discontinuation. Of house and unit sales (green) shows a similar upward trend to investment lending, but has not yet reached the frenzied height of 2009, let alone 2003. The ABS Eight Capital Cities house-price index,. Accommodation. But they are not obliged to seek tenants. How much of the building binge represents empty inner-city apartments ...1986 ...
blog.lvrg.org.au
Land Values Research Group: Hours worked, balance of trade will hurt GDP
http://blog.lvrg.org.au/2014/07/hours-worked-balance-of-trade-will-hurt-gdp.html
Thursday, July 10, 2014:. Hours worked, balance of trade will hurt GDP. By Gavin R. Putland. In the following graph, the black curve shows the quarterly percentage change in the total hours worked ( ABS 6202.0. Tab19), while the yellow curve shows the contribution of the change in the balance on goods and services ( ABS 5368.0. The red curve shows the “headline” change in real. GDP up to Q1 of 2014 ( ABS 5206.0. Premium content) shows that the quarterly decline in hours worked largely reflects one bad mo...
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