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The (data) science of sports. Feb 07, 2015. Expected Points Part 2: Why Does Uncertainty Matter? Feb 01, 2015. Expected Points Part 1: Building a Model and Estimating Uncertainty. Jan 01, 2015. A new season, a new (lean) design. Dec 30, 2014. Why is it so hard to know if changing coaches has any effect? Dec 21, 2014. Using Continuous-Time Markov Chains to Rank College Football Teams. Nov 16, 2014. How to ask for (and receive) help from strangers on the internet. Nov 04, 2014. Nov 03, 2014. Oct 11, 2014.

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the spread | thespread.us Reviews

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The (data) science of sports. Feb 07, 2015. Expected Points Part 2: Why Does Uncertainty Matter? Feb 01, 2015. Expected Points Part 1: Building a Model and Estimating Uncertainty. Jan 01, 2015. A new season, a new (lean) design. Dec 30, 2014. Why is it so hard to know if changing coaches has any effect? Dec 21, 2014. Using Continuous-Time Markov Chains to Rank College Football Teams. Nov 16, 2014. How to ask for (and receive) help from strangers on the internet. Nov 04, 2014. Nov 03, 2014. Oct 11, 2014.

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the spread | thespread.us Reviews

https://thespread.us

The (data) science of sports. Feb 07, 2015. Expected Points Part 2: Why Does Uncertainty Matter? Feb 01, 2015. Expected Points Part 1: Building a Model and Estimating Uncertainty. Jan 01, 2015. A new season, a new (lean) design. Dec 30, 2014. Why is it so hard to know if changing coaches has any effect? Dec 21, 2014. Using Continuous-Time Markov Chains to Rank College Football Teams. Nov 16, 2014. How to ask for (and receive) help from strangers on the internet. Nov 04, 2014. Nov 03, 2014. Oct 11, 2014.

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thespread.us

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the spread

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The (data) science of sports. Oct 18, 2015. Win probability plots - useful tool? Oct 03, 2015. What we talk about when we talk about win probability. Sep 23, 2015. The sorry state of football analytics. Sep 23, 2015. How to ask for (and receive) help from strangers on the internet. Sep 23, 2015. Why is it so hard to know if changing coaches has any effect? Sep 23, 2015. Blueprint for an Analytical NFL Franchise, version 0.1. Sep 23, 2015. Situational thinking in football - How can data help? Sep 23, 2015.

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Expected Points Part 2: Why Does Uncertainty Matter? | the spread

http://www.thespread.us/expected-points-2.html

The (data) science of sports. Expected Points Part 2: Why Does Uncertainty Matter? Wed 23 September 2015. In the last post. We built a basic expected points model and showed how we can estimate uncertainty using a statisical procedure called the. Now I want to push our assumptions a little further and look at how expected points have changed over time and I want to talk about why we want to estimate uncertainty in the first place. FiveThirtyEight recently published a very interesting article. It definite...

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Using k-means clustering to find similar players | the spread

http://www.thespread.us/clustering.html

The (data) science of sports. Using k-means clustering to find similar players. Wed 23 September 2015. Most of the posts so far have focused on what data scientists call. Methods - you have some outcome you're trying to predict and you use a combination of predictor variables to do so. Another important class of methods are called. This is where unsupervised methods come in. We'll be focusing on a popular unsupervised method called. One popular method is called. Note, this isn't the same. Is just a commo...

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Using Continuous-Time Markov Chains to Rank College Football Teams | the spread

http://www.thespread.us/continuous-markov-ratings.html

The (data) science of sports. Using Continuous-Time Markov Chains to Rank College Football Teams. Wed 23 September 2015. I normally don't write about college football on this blog, but I do write about ranking algorithms. In that tradition, I'm extremely excited to have Matt Mills. Contribute a new post on using continuous-time Markov chains to rank college football teams. Matt blogs for SB Nation about college football, statistics, and Georgia Tech. The two ratings are very similar, but the CTMC rating ...

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Blueprint for an Analytical NFL Franchise, version 0.1 | the spread

http://www.thespread.us/analytical-blueprint.html

The (data) science of sports. Blueprint for an Analytical NFL Franchise, version 0.1. Wed 23 September 2015. What should an analytically driven NFL franchise look like? I've been having versions of this conversation a lot lately, with folks both inside and outside of the industry. Then, this morning I was catching up on Three Cone Drill. Where Rivers and Danny were having a very similar discussion. It's almost certainly confirmation bias. As the always insightful Seth Partnow. Of the people involved....

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sportsplusnumbers.com

Sports + Numbers: How realistic are the trades in 'Draft Day'?

http://www.sportsplusnumbers.com/2014/04/how-realistic-are-trades-in-draft-day.html

Making enjoyable things more like math class since 2012. Monday, April 21, 2014. How realistic are the trades in 'Draft Day'? If you are a regular reader of the site, you probably know that the answer is likely to be ‘very bad’ but thanks for stopping by to find out. In the smash hit movie Draft Day. I built to follow along with the calculations and see the impact of assumptions. Going into the draft the fictional Browns hold the 7. I’m going to be honest here: I don’t love this trade [1]. The writers of...

sportsplusnumbers.com

Sports + Numbers: Some news is worse than no news: The NFL Scouting Combine and projecting draft picks

http://www.sportsplusnumbers.com/2013/02/some-news-is-worse-than-no-news-nfl.html

Making enjoyable things more like math class since 2012. Wednesday, February 27, 2013. Some news is worse than no news: The NFL Scouting Combine and projecting draft picks. In general it is a pretty good assumption that adding information to a decision making process improves the outcome. In specific instances, however, the added information can be extremely disruptive. With respect to the NFL Scouting Combine, does it help? Source: Melvin A. Kiper, Jr. 40 times matter, just not for everyone. Defensive b...

treycausey.com

Trey Causey– Getting started in data science

http://treycausey.com/getting_started.html

Getting started in data science. June 07, 2014. There's no denying that 'data scientist' is a hot job title to have right now, and for good reason. It's a tremendously fun and challenging field to be in, and despite all of the often undeserved hoopla that surrounds it, data scientists are doing some pretty amazing things. So it's no surprise that many people are clamoring to find out how to become data scientists. As I run a blog. This isn't me doing boundary work. The reason I'm skeptical is because I b...

sportsplusnumbers.com

Sports + Numbers: Player performance curves and value for money

http://www.sportsplusnumbers.com/2013/12/player-performance-curves-and-value-for.html

Making enjoyable things more like math class since 2012. Monday, December 2, 2013. Player performance curves and value for money. As mentioned in this space. The jumping off point for this data set is getting a good baseline on the efficiency of spending in the NFL. How much does it cost to squeeze one unit of Approximate Value [1]. Out of a given position? In the post I wrote about spending on running backs (see here. To convert this into current cap dollars and give consistent “values” for ...The targe...

treycausey.com

Trey Causey– Software development skills for data scientists

http://treycausey.com/software_dev_skills.html

Software development skills for data scientists. September 17, 2015. Data scientists often come from diverse backgrounds and frequently don't have much, if any, in the way of formal training in computer science or software development. That being said, most data scientists at some point will find themselves in discussions with software engineers because of some code that already is or will be touching production code. This conversation will probably go something like this:. You may be used to your code l...

sportsplusnumbers.com

Sports + Numbers: What are NFL draft picks really worth (and do they help teams win)?

http://www.sportsplusnumbers.com/2012/11/what-are-nfl-draft-picks-really-worth.html

Making enjoyable things more like math class since 2012. Tuesday, November 13, 2012. What are NFL draft picks really worth (and do they help teams win)? Rounders, a 5. To the Minnesota Vikings in exchange for five players, three 1. Round picks, three 2. Round picks, a 3. Round pick and a 6. The Chart provides a value for each pick in the form of unitless “points” assigned decreasing from 3000 for the number one overall to, depending on which source you consult, 0.4 points for the 256. The Chart over time.

sportsplusnumbers.com

Sports + Numbers: Why doesn't paying win like it used to?

http://www.sportsplusnumbers.com/2013/04/why-doesnt-paying-win-like-it-used-to.html

Making enjoyable things more like math class since 2012. Sunday, April 7, 2013. Why doesn't paying win like it used to? For a while in the late 1990s it seemed like the final standings in baseball were a foregone conclusion. The relationship between payroll and winning topped out in 1998 and 1999 with a correlation of .68 and 0.71. I would like to add one more dimension to the discussion: locking in free agents. In the first few years of free agency—the latter half of the 1970s—teams did take...In Kansas...

treycausey.com

Trey Causey– Hiring data scientists

http://treycausey.com/hiring_data_scientists.html

May 04, 2015. These are my thoughts about the process of hiring data scientists. By process I mean the actual process of conducting interviews and asking candidates questions. I don't mean the topic of the questions or the skills you need to look for in data scientists (I covered that earlier here. Obligatory note that these are my own views and not the views of any of my employers, past or present. My ideal process looks something like this. I'll detail each of these steps below. 4) Offer / no offer.

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The (data) science of sports. Feb 07, 2015. Expected Points Part 2: Why Does Uncertainty Matter? Feb 01, 2015. Expected Points Part 1: Building a Model and Estimating Uncertainty. Jan 01, 2015. A new season, a new (lean) design. Dec 30, 2014. Why is it so hard to know if changing coaches has any effect? Dec 21, 2014. Using Continuous-Time Markov Chains to Rank College Football Teams. Nov 16, 2014. How to ask for (and receive) help from strangers on the internet. Nov 04, 2014. Nov 03, 2014. Oct 11, 2014.

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