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Mathematical | Thinking Bettor | thinkingbettor.com Reviews

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Better ******** through the use of mathematics, statistics, and economics.

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1

Why Do Smart People Gamble?

http://www.thinkingbettor.com/why-smart-people-gamble

Enter your email address:. Math and Stats Concepts. The information provided on this site is for entertainment purposes only, and should not be taken as financial advice. Why Do Smart People Gamble? For just a moment, let go of the idea that gambling is one day going to make you rich. This blog isn’t about that. It’s quite possible that the math and statistics tools. Explored here will make you a better gambler, but that’s not really the point. To Economists, Gambling Doesn’t Make Sense. In fact, in a cl...

2

Improving the Strength of Schedule Model, and Week 4 NFL Picks | Thinking Bettor

http://www.thinkingbettor.com/reduced-variance-strength-of-schedule-betting-model

Enter your email address:. Math and Stats Concepts. The information provided on this site is for entertainment purposes only, and should not be taken as financial advice. Improving the Strength of Schedule Model, and Week 4 NFL Picks. I promised you all that before Sunday, I’d try to get you the offensive and defensive ratings of the 32 NFL teams, as computed by the strength-of-schedule model. I introduced in my last post. Offense/Defense NFL Strength Ratings. O-D Total (from above). The numbers very nea...

3

A Basic Model to Account for Strength of Schedule | Thinking Bettor

http://www.thinkingbettor.com/basic-model

Enter your email address:. Math and Stats Concepts. The information provided on this site is for entertainment purposes only, and should not be taken as financial advice. A Basic Model to Account for Strength of Schedule. The Basic Difficulty in Computing Strength-of-Schedule. For the sake of familiarity, let’s assume we’re talking about the NFL. You’re considering a bet on the Houston Texans this weekend, Week 4. So we look at who the Texans have played and how they did. We’ve seen the Texans ...Of cour...

4

How Sports Betting Is Like the Playing the Stock Market

http://www.thinkingbettor.com/sports-betting-efficient-market

Enter your email address:. Math and Stats Concepts. The information provided on this site is for entertainment purposes only, and should not be taken as financial advice. How Sports Betting is Like the Playing the Stock Market. If you think about it, a sportsbook isn’t so different from a financial market. The Efficient Market Hypothesis. There’s an essential lesson to be gleaned from this comparison, and shockingly, it’s one that many casual sports bettors never get. It’s the notio...Got in trouble.).

5

Betting Models | Thinking Bettor

http://www.thinkingbettor.com/category/betting-models

Enter your email address:. Math and Stats Concepts. The information provided on this site is for entertainment purposes only, and should not be taken as financial advice. Category Archives: Betting Models. Improving the Strength of Schedule Model, and Week 4 NFL Picks. Click to read more ». 2 Comments - Leave a comment! A Basic Model to Account for Strength of Schedule. Click to read more ». 8 Comments - Leave a comment! How Much Would You Pay to Play this Infinite-Expectation Game?

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Mathematical Gambling | Thinking Bettor

Enter your email address:. Math and Stats Concepts. The information provided on this site is for entertainment purposes only, and should not be taken as financial advice. How Much Would You Pay to Play this Infinite-Expectation Game? For any gambler with a cursory understanding of math, expectation is everything. Simple. You’re willing to pay up the amount that a bet is worth to you, on average. E[X] = p 1X 1 p 2X 2 cdots p nX n,$. So how much would you pay to play THIS game? The house flips a coin until...

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Bill Bowern Consulting Home

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