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Tim van Gelder | Epistemology is everywhereEpistemology is everywhere (by Tim van Gelder)
http://www.timvangelder.com/
Epistemology is everywhere (by Tim van Gelder)
http://www.timvangelder.com/
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Tim van Gelder | Epistemology is everywhere | timvangelder.com Reviews
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Epistemology is everywhere (by Tim van Gelder)
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Proper scoring | Tim van Gelder
http://timvangelder.com/category/proper-scoring
Archive for the ‘Proper scoring’ Category. On May 20, 2015 2 Comments. Are Treasury forecasts credible? In a recent opinion piece. Economics columnist Ross Gittins defended Treasury on the grounds that:. It assesses its own performance and publishes the results. It bases its forecasts on reasonable assumptions and sophisticated modeling. Its critics don’t do either of these things. But still, are they credible? What does “credible” mean? In which Treasury describes its own performance. How do we tell?
Brier score composition – A mini-tutorial | Tim van Gelder
http://timvangelder.com/2015/05/18/brier-score-composition-a-mini-tutorial
Laquo; Seven Guidelines for Better Forecasting. Brier score composition – A mini-tutorial. May 18, 2015 by Tim van Gelder. When is a forecaster performing well? An increasingly common way to measure this is to use a scoring rule known as the Brier score. As found on the website RBA.Tips. To keep things simple, the dataset reduces the predictions to binary outcomes – Change or No Change – and provides a numerical estimate of the probability of No Change. Of 75%. In other words, there isn’t a lot...This re...
Forecasting | Tim van Gelder
http://timvangelder.com/category/forecasting
Archive for the ‘Forecasting’ Category. On June 24, 2015 1 Comment. 8220;As soon as you start thinking probabilities, all kinds of things change. You’ll prepare for risks you disregarded before. You’ll listen to people you disagreed with before. You won’t be surprised when a recession or a bear market that no one predicted occurs. All of this makes you better at handling and navigating the future — which is the point of forecasting in the first place.”. See also rba.tips. Read Full Post ». It shows Treas...
The biggest revolutions in worldview have been scientific | Tim van Gelder
http://timvangelder.com/2015/01/22/the-biggest-revolutions-in-worldview-have-been-scientific
Laquo; What is Decision Engineering? Seven Guidelines for Better Forecasting. The biggest revolutions in worldview have been scientific. January 22, 2015 by Tim van Gelder. I forwarded to Paul Monk a link to this video:. He replied, within minutes:. It prompts the thought that the biggest revolutions in worldview have been scientific and have entailed:. 4 Slowly getting to understanding human history from a global and cosmopolitan perspective instead of from narrowly local ones; and. 5 Developing the ele...
Brier score | Tim van Gelder
http://timvangelder.com/category/brier-score
Archive for the ‘Brier score’ Category. Brier score composition – A mini-tutorial. Posted in Brier score. On May 18, 2015 Leave a Comment. When is a forecaster performing well? An increasingly common way to measure this is to use a scoring rule known as the Brier score. As found on the website RBA.Tips. To keep things simple, the dataset reduces the predictions to binary outcomes – Change or No Change – and provides a numerical estimate of the probability of No Change. Of 75%. In other words, there i...
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Factcheck by Debattenprofis: A Comment on an Argument Mapping Experiment - Argunet
http://www.argunet.org/2013/04/29/factcheck-by-debattenprofis-a-comment-on-an-argument-mapping-experiment
A blog on argumentation. Create Your Own Argument Map. Embed Your Argument Map Into Your Website. So, what exactly. Factcheck by Debattenprofis: A Comment on an Argument Mapping Experiment. Monday, April 29th, 2013. Since October 2012, Ralf Grötker. Has been conducting a media experiment involving argument maps and swarm intelligence. In the so-called. Grötker sets up and moderates online forums on controversial issues (e.g., “boycott of textiles — helpful or not? Grötker sums up his experience so far.
Climate Impacts Day – 5/5/12 | planetcentric
https://chrisriedy.me/2012/03/23/climate-impacts-day-5512
A blog about living within planetary boundaries. Collaborative consumption in Australia. Public opinion on climate change in Australia. Published on March 23, 2012. Climate Impacts Day – 5/5/12. Written by Chris Riedy. On 5th May 2012, 350.org. Is running its next big, global event for climate action – Climate Impacts Day. Their invitation starts like this:. But because the globe is so big, it’s hard for most people to see that it’s all connected. That’s why, on May 5, we will Connect the Dots. Click to ...
Videos « A Clear Logical Argument Guaranteed
https://logicguaranteed.com/videos
A Clear Logical Argument Guaranteed. A Clear Logical Argument Guaranteed / Complete Training. Https:/ www.youtube.com/channel/UCbG4r CfMATCWFmQtaogm0Q. Presentations for Professor Peter Tillers and Phillip Segal, Esq. Fact Investigation 1 (2011-12). Visualizing Evidentiary Probative Weight: Depiction with Defeasible Class-Inclusion Transitivity (DCIT) Inference Model. Untangling Evidentiary Inferential Nets: A Defeasible Class-Inclusion Transitivity (DCIT) Inference Model. Tim van Gelder Blog.
Online Course « A Clear Logical Argument Guaranteed
https://logicguaranteed.com/online-training-course
A Clear Logical Argument Guaranteed. An online training course is available at https:/ www.udemy.com/a-clear-logical-argument-guaranteed/? This link provides a 20% discount off the regular price. The course has 33 video lectures with over four hours of content along with supplemental materials. A Clear Logical Argument Guaranteed. David L. Hitchcock Publications. Peter Tillers Blog on Evidence and Inference. Peter Tillers Publications and Comments. Thomas F. Gordon Publications. Tim van Gelder Blog.
Our Team - van Gelder & Monk
http://www.vangeldermonk.com/our-team.html
Our team consists of three principals, working with a range of associates and partners. Please contact any of us for a conversation about how we might assist you. Dr Tim van Gelder. Dr Richard de Rozario. 61 (0) 438 131 266. Tim van Gelder MA PhD GAICD. One of the most imaginative thinkers of the modern age is Tim van Gelder.". Yeshiva University, New York. 61 (0) 433 128 818. Thunder from the Silent Zone: Rethinking China. The West in a Nutshell: Foundations, Fragilities, Futures. 61 (0) 413 020 781.
reallyusefulphilosophy.blogspot.com
Whatbeliefs.com: Theory Mapping Pilot test: Causes of climate change
http://reallyusefulphilosophy.blogspot.com/2009/02/theory-mapping-pilot-test-causes-of.html
Helping you to rationally decide on your beliefs and values. Contains key answers and links to all the posts on Theory Mapping. Climate change pilot test. The first Theory Mapping debate! Truth - what is it? The accurate prediction of sense experiences". The Meaning of Life. Value - what is it? The quality of something that means we ought to appreciate and promote it". Vaue - how can we find it? You already have lots of values, what you want is a principle of value! A revolution in thinking about values.
reallyusefulphilosophy.blogspot.com
Whatbeliefs.com: December 2008
http://reallyusefulphilosophy.blogspot.com/2008_12_01_archive.html
Helping you to rationally decide on your beliefs and values. Contains key answers and links to all the posts on Theory Mapping. Climate change pilot test. The first Theory Mapping debate! Truth - what is it? The accurate prediction of sense experiences". The Meaning of Life. Value - what is it? The quality of something that means we ought to appreciate and promote it". Vaue - how can we find it? You already have lots of values, what you want is a principle of value! A revolution in thinking about values.
reallyusefulphilosophy.blogspot.com
Whatbeliefs.com: February 2009
http://reallyusefulphilosophy.blogspot.com/2009_02_01_archive.html
Helping you to rationally decide on your beliefs and values. Contains key answers and links to all the posts on Theory Mapping. Climate change pilot test. The first Theory Mapping debate! Truth - what is it? The accurate prediction of sense experiences". The Meaning of Life. Value - what is it? The quality of something that means we ought to appreciate and promote it". Vaue - how can we find it? You already have lots of values, what you want is a principle of value! A revolution in thinking about values.
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Tim van Erven | Machine learning researcher in Leiden
Machine learning researcher in Leiden. Skip to primary content. Welcome to my homepage. I am a researcher working on machine learning and statistics. I am an assistant professor in the statistics group at Leiden University. In the Netherlands. My previous position was a postdoc on a Rubicon grant in Paris at the Université Paris-Sud. Where I was also part of the INRIA team SELECT. Sequential prediction (online learning). Information theory in statistics, minimum description length. In the “Bayes in...
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Timcam
Tim van Geelen - Sound Designer, Teacher, Interactive Audio Specialist
There's nothing here yet! Meanwhile, you can check my LinkedIn here.
Tim van Gelder | Epistemology is everywhere
June 24, 2015 by Tim van Gelder. 8220;As soon as you start thinking probabilities, all kinds of things change. You’ll prepare for risks you disregarded before. You’ll listen to people you disagreed with before. You won’t be surprised when a recession or a bear market that no one predicted occurs. All of this makes you better at handling and navigating the future — which is the point of forecasting in the first place.”. From a good piece in the Motley Fool called Maybe Yes, Maybe No. See also rba.tips.
Tim Van Gerven
Thoughts from the along the way. 2015 Ukraine Mission Updates. The Donkey Got It. As I mentioned before, only two got it: Jesus and the Donkey, and for that we need to look at this story in light of Exodus 13. 8220;But every firstborn of a donkey you shall redeem with a lamb;. And if you will not redeem it;. Then you shall break its neck.” - Exodus 13:13a. 8220;Go into the village opposite you,. Where as you enter you will find a colt tied. On which no one has ever sat. And bring it here. There is one th...
Tim van Gestel, IT professional en zanger uit Goirle bij Tilburg
Geboren op 25 juni 1982. Woonachtig in Goirle, Nederland. Tim's grootste hobby is zingen. Hij is dan ook erg actief als zanger. Cover - Dust in the Wind. Cover - When we don't talk. Cover - When you say nothing at all. Cover - Set fire to the rain. Cover - Save the last dance. Cover - Everything I do. Cover - My girl. Cover - You needed me. Own song - Life.
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Tim Van Grove
Previously, he was Director of Sales at Antex Electronics, a company that manufactures audiovisual equipment for various segments of the commercial market, with a strong emphasis in the courts and the retail BGM sector (DMX Music, PlayNetwork, etc.). In addition, he has an extensive system integration background, designing and managing projects for gaming corporations which include Harrah’s Entertainment, Caesar’s, and MGM Resorts. 1077 East Pacific Coast Highway. Seal Beach, CA 90740.
Tim Van Grove - Pianist
With a contemporary smooth jazz style that is both soulful and relaxing, the piano performance of Tim Van Grove is the perfect musical enhancement for your restaurant, lounge, wedding, or special event.
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