marktheballot.blogspot.com
Mark the Ballot: July 2015
http://marktheballot.blogspot.com/2015_07_01_archive.html
Psephology by the numbers. Thursday, July 30, 2015. Following the 2013 election, polls from Essential jumped to the right politically (jumped upwards in the chart below). I wondered whether this was a correction for their position prior to the 2013 election. Most polling houses had over-estimated the Greens and under-estimated the Coalition in the Primaries. Anyway, the last six months has seen Essential move back in line with my TPP trend estimate. Links to this post. Wednesday, July 29, 2015. This mode...
blog.geeklections.com.au
NSW Senate Predictions
https://blog.geeklections.com.au/federal/2016/senate/2016/06/28/nsw-senate-predictions.html
June 28, 2016 13:30 Federal 2016 Senate. Ok, finally. I did it. I have something to show for all of my efforts. Drum roll please. Yeah that didn’t work. Ok here’s the possible outcomes for the Senate race in NSW:. NSW Election Outcome Breakdown. What does this mean? Well, the LNP. Is guaranteed 4 seats, and probably 5, while the ALP. Is guaranteed 4 seats (nearly) and has an outside chance at 5. The Greens. Will get 1 seat, and the rest of them are up for grabs! The most likely outcome is:. Has a nice so...
blog.geeklections.com.au
New Blog!
https://blog.geeklections.com.au/site/2016/03/14/new-blog.html
March 14, 2016 09:30 Site. Election season is upon us! 2016 is ( most probably. The year of the next Federal election. There’s tons of interesting things happening in local politics, and this means plenty of analysis:. The LNP dropping in the two party preferred polls. The Nick Xenophon Team. Is polling quite well. In South Australia (big bump to the. Are happening for (maybe) announcements tomorrow. I will be updating the site over the next few weeks, with hopefully more content like this:.
blog.geeklections.com.au
Tactical Voting
https://blog.geeklections.com.au/federal/2016/senate/2016/06/30/tactical-voting.html
June 30, 2016 14:01 Federal 2016 Senate. So now we’ve done some simulations of the likely parties to get elected; what can we do now? Broadly, the answer is Fill out the entire ballot paper , but if you want to save time you can just fill out. Parties that have a. Of being elected. (Although, it pains me to tell you to only partially fill). Here are some useful websites which will assist you in:. Creating Ballots (ugly, but good features). Creating Ballots (prettier, but I think a little worse). LNP Left...
blog.geeklections.com.au
WA Senate Predictions
https://blog.geeklections.com.au/federal/2016/senate/2016/06/30/wa-senate-predictions.html
June 30, 2016 12:24 Federal 2016 Senate. The final state we’re looking at is Western Australia, and it’s a bit of a doozy. WA Election Outcome Breakdown. What does this mean? Well, the LNP. Is guaranteed 4 seats, the ALP. Is guaranteed 3 seats and The Greens. Are guaranteed 1 seat. The rest of them are up for grabs! The most likely outcome is:. LDP or NXT or NAT or PUP. And, if you make me guess it’s got to be the Nick Xenophon Team. The Nick Xenophon Team. The Palmer (Dio Wang) United Party.
blog.geeklections.com.au
Double Dissolution Senate Analysis
https://blog.geeklections.com.au/federal/2016/senate/2016/05/01/senate-calculations.html
Double Dissolution Senate Analysis. May 1, 2016 13:00 Federal 2016 Senate. So, now we’ve lost Group Voting Tickets (GVTs), and people will now actually be able to preference candidates they. Rather than candidates that are chosen for them what do we expect to happen? Ok, so we have a couple of questions we’ve got to ask ourselves:. Who do people vote for? Who do they preference after their first box? How many boxes do they fill in? How much does preferencing matter at all? Who do people vote for? LDP Vot...
blog.geeklections.com.au
QLD Senate Predictions
https://blog.geeklections.com.au/federal/2016/senate/2016/06/30/qld-senate-predictions.html
June 30, 2016 00:50 Federal 2016 Senate. Queensland has quite a few popular minor parties running, and that’s making prediction very hard. QLD Election Outcome Breakdown. What does this mean? Well, the LNP. Is guaranteed 4 seats, the ALP. Is guaranteed 3 seats each and The Greens. Will get 1 seat. The rest of them are up for grabs! The most likely outcome is:. Katter or Hanson or Xenophon. Or Nick Xenophon Team. In the state of Queensland. Katter’s Australian Party. Even known in other states? All of the...
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